foreclosure homes

RealtyTrac has just reported that even though the volume of foreclosed homes plunged by 25% from Q2 to Q3 and 31% from Q2 of 2009, the discount on foreclosed homes has hit a five year high, as interest in even ultra bargain properties has collapsed following the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit, and confirming yesterday's bad Case Shiller (remember that one?) number. Per RealtyTrac: "foreclosure homes accounted for 25 percent of all U.S. residential sales in the third quarter of 2010 and that the average sales price of properties that sold while in some stage of foreclosure was more than 32 percent below the average sales price of properties not in the foreclosure process — up from a 26 percent discount in the previous quarter and a 29 percent discount in the third quarter of 2009." Yet despite the major price drop, buying interest has evaporated as nobody there is no longer any purchasing power left in the lower and middle sections of the housing market: "a total of 188,748 U.S. properties in some stage of foreclosure — default, scheduled for auction or bank-owned (REO) — sold to third parties in the third quarter, a decrease of 25 percent from the previous quarter and a decrease of nearly 31 percent from the third quarter of 2009. The average sales price of properties in some stage of foreclosure was $169,523, down 2.46 percent from the previous quarter and down 0.44 percent from the third quarter of 2009." And while the average price of non-foreclosed homes posted a slight uptick in Q3, the volume drop was even worse: "The average sales price of properties not in foreclosure was $249,721, up 6.42 percent from the previous quarter and up 4.36 percent from the third quarter of 2009. Sales volume of non-foreclosure properties decreased 29 percent from the previous quarter and nearly 31 percent from the third quarter of 2009."

More from RealtyTrac's Jim Saccacio:

LPS Applied Analytics released their November Mortgage Performance data. According to LPS:



• The average number of days delinquent for loans in foreclosure is a record 499 days

• Over 4.3 million loans are 90 days or more delinquent or in foreclosure

• Delinquency rates are down across all products as more loans entered foreclosure and new delinquencies declined.

• Foreclosure inventory increases are being driven both by elevated levels of foreclosure starts as well as a very limited amount of foreclosure sale activity.



Click on graph for larger image in new window.



This graph provided by LPS Applied Analytics shows the percent delinquent, percent in foreclosure, and total non-current mortgages.



The percent in the foreclosure process is trending up because of the foreclosure moratoriums.



According to LPS, 9.02% of mortgages are delinquent (down from 9.29% in October), and another 4.08% are in the foreclosure process (up from 3.92% in October) for a total of 13.10%. It breaks down as:



• 2.61 million loans less than 90 days delinquent.

• 2.16 million loans 90+ days delinquent.

• 2.16 million loans in foreclosure process.



For a total of 6.92 million loans delinquent or in foreclosure.



Note: I've seen some people include these 7 million delinquent loans as "shadow inventory". This is not correct because 1) some of these loans will cure, and 2) some of these homes are already listed for sale (so they are included in the visible inventory).



Two key numbers to watch in 2011 are:

• New delinquencies. With falling house prices, delinquencies could start to increase again.

• Foreclosures. With the end of the foreclosure moratoriums, foreclosure sales should increase - and the number of homes in the foreclosure process should decline.  However REOs (Real Estate Owned) will increase unless the homes are sold.

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